I've checked back here to see if I have had visitors. . . there was one and so. . .

I've had a look at my last surviving positions and find that the first one was left to drawdown of over 100pips. However, while this entry was a mistake it still is a winner!

I see that my first AUDUSD entry had a drawdown of over 100pips! I remember back to my mindframe at that time. I recall that I felt I was right and that I felt I could enter with NO SL! While I do not advocate this type of entry I will confess that was what it was. The drawdown was less than 0.25% or so. After a while the trade went in my favor and I locked it in and began looking for another entry. Neither of the two other trade entries AUDUSD nor NZDUSD needed to lose more than 10 pips before a BE move was given! They just 'ran'!! Two of the three showing trades were taken with only 10 pips possible loss at the most. That is where my interest lays. Enter with only a small risk and reap a big reward when you are right. 

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AUDUSD Weekly Musings. . .

Bulls remained in charge last week closing price above the upper weekly channel that we were looking at last week. Notice how the trendline was tested in the 4hr later in the week and became support rather than resistance.

Another monthly candle closed last week so I've included a monthly chart in this weeks post. What I notice is that this pair can trend up for many months - see all the green candles at the start of the monthly chart. Also, last months up candle was very strong exceeding the ATR by a couple hundred pips.

It must remain in our minds that we are near all time highs, however, this pair is in a strong uptrend and may very well blow through the expected resistance at those highs with little looking back. If it does next likely obvious point to look for resistance will be 1.000

Short term bias: bullish (there - that outta make it go down LOL)

Long term bias: bullish

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This is not a recommendation to trade!

AUDUSD Weekly Musings

The bulls clearly remained in charge last week and price was pushed to .9600

Price is currently at the top of a weekly channel up and is in a prime zone for the beginning of a retracement. Possible triggers for retracement will be price reaching .9800 as well as 1hr, 4hr and daily closes below the upper weekly channel trend line also continued resistance at .9600. Bears will be watching for any weakness and likely will be targeting the lower weekly channel trendline for profit taking (.9200?).

Short term sentiment - bearish

Long term sentiment - bullish

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This is not a recommendation to trade.

AUDUSD Weekly Musings

 After another open gap last week's price action spent most of it's time bouncing around .9400

The week ended with a sizable retracement leaving last weeks candle forming a bearish candle. 

This week I've included a monthly chart. A look at the monthly shows that we are at an area of strong resistance. Resistance to this level can be seen at the high of 2007, also at the start of the big crash in 2008, at the beginning of the current ranging period in 2009 and most recently April 2010. Indeed there is a strong case for the bears after last weeks candle. Support and resistance traders will be looking to go short around this price level using target levels of .9200 to .9000 for profit taking levels.

Now let's look at the other side of the coin - the trend traders looking for price to resume the longer term bullish trend which started early 2009. Price closed this week above any close seen for many weeks even months. Indeed price has closed above any other close in the range that began late last year putting alot of resistance between current price and any substantial move down. Also we are still 500 pips or so away from the all time high seen in 2008 of .9848 leaving plenty of room for price to move higher before S/R traders with an eye on larger time frames will be likely be rallying to short the pair again.

Where does all this leave me? Well I guess I could sum up my sentiment on this pair as short term bearish and long term bullish.

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This is not a recommendation to trade.